Attacking Weak Flop Bets
Attacking Weak Flop Bets
One of the first moves I ever learned to make was the flop continuation bet, the second move I ever learned was to attack other people’s C-bets. Logical really and most key tournament hands are decided by action on the flop. Randomly attacking C-Bets though is going to be a very frustrating and costly experience, its going to pay to be rather specific about the situations you choose to counter attack from.
An obvious example would be re-raising tight solid players after they have raised from EP on a Ace/King board, this is always going to be a long term losing proposition. The key factors are pretty obvious then, attacking early position raisers is always going to be more dangerous than middle or late position raisers regardless of the player in questions particular playing style, even the loosest player in the world is more likely to have a hand if his raising from early position, that’s the nature of the game.
So if we surmise that in general EP means big cards then we will limit our flop re-raise’s of these players to any board with out an ace or a king and where they have shown weakness. Now let’s make sure we understand what I mean by weakness. An EP raiser checking a Jack/Queen high flop does not necessarily mean they have missed, in fact you really would expect an EP raiser to follow through on any flop with one picture card that’s not particularly threatening, so the fact they have not should raise alarm bells.
So unless you have seen this player consistently check missed flops then extreme caution for the remainder of the hand is advised. On the other hand if a solid player makes a solid looking bet on a one court card flop then this might be worth attacking. To clarify what I mean by a solid bet I would consider something from 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot and only when this amount won’t commit them to the hand. This bet so often is an attempt to look confident and committed, and of course it’s quite likely to mean the exact opposite. In general the 1/2 pot bet is usually made by weaker inexperienced players and the 2/3 by better stronger players. Attack both though with relish! But only if you have a decent table image, nutter’s get no respect and an AK on a Q 10 board might go with there three across believing it might be ahead or they might have 2 X 12 outs.
Now full pot flop bets are quite easy to play against, if your opponent is aggressive and there’s no draws on the board and there’s been no apparent substance to his betting (by Substance I mean he has opened the betting and you’re his only opponent, if he has been re-raised or called a raise then his betting has been defined and has some substance) then its most likely to be horse shit, unless table conditions indicate otherwise*, so as long as his bet won’t commit him to the pot I will go after this type of bet. If a solid/tight player bets pot then I’m getting out of dodge, there just not letting go of whatever they have.
Reading flops then is crucially important when going after the C-bettor, for example attacking a mid position raiser on a uncoordinated ten high flop is quite likely to be a long term rewarding play. We have to be mindful though that mind position raisers are more likely to have drawing hands so be careful of attacking big drawing flops and two pair flops, examples would be 9,8,6 two suits, J,10,8 two suits, 5,6,7 two suits. Lots of mid/late position raisers will have hit these flops either with and open ender, flush or two pair.
So then smart arse, what’s a weak bet then?
I wish I could categorically answer this; if I could it would make me rich and I would be paying some other poor fucker to write for me. The truth is there is no real sure fire way of knowing, but we can generalise. A good rule of thumb is too look for different behavioural/betting patterns. A good example is a very aggressive opponent raising pre-flop and then checking a coordinated flop. We know they will C-bet a very high proportion of the time and his aggressive nature means he will attack with almost any draw. So when an agro player decides to check/weak lead a co-ordinated flop or makes what appears to be a weak bet then this action can be seen as out of character. In all likely hood the check/weak lead is being made for one of three reasons;
1.) His hit the flop hard.
2.) He has a big drawing hand which his planning to check raise you with.
3.) You have a very tight image and his missed all ends up and will let go.
So 2/3 of the time a bet will be contested. More if you’re an active player.
Now if a more selective player checks/weak leads a 1/3 of the pot then three reason are;
1.) He has missed and is scared or trying to buy the pot cheap.
2.) He is making a weak lead looking for a raise.
3.) He has a draw that he wants for free or is trying to dictate how much he pays for it.
Now it’s up to you how to play this type of situation, I almost always re-raise the weak lead if there’s the value to do so, I can get away from a re-shove and there’s no flush draw (they rarely fold the flush draw on the flop, I heard a rumour someone on poker stars once folded one but I think it might be an Urban legend).
Just some thoughts, let me know what you think at.
http://flipyouforit.blogspot.com/
* By table conditions I mean please use your common sense, if a player has recently just lost a large proportion of his stack with a big hand being outdrawn then if he is put in the same situation his going to play it a lot faster. Good players should be wholly aware of this but you would be surprised how many aren’t.
I remember covering a hand at last years London EPT, where Surinder Sunar (a player I greatly admire) made a horrible mistake that he would never have made if he had played a lot more online poker. With about 14 left a guy from Cyprus loses a big pot against a German player, his top set is out drawn buy some ugly flush draw on the river(Q 4 or some shite). Next hand it folds round to him in the small blind and he moves all in for some huge number, Sunar thinks for an age and Chilli and I are watching, Chilli ask’s me what I think they have and I nail it, Cypriote fella KK and Sunar KQ, Sunar calls and is crippled out of the tournament.**
This is an example of table condition’s dictating play, I’ve just seen this move so often online, your trying to look on tilt and get a bad call but there’s also the element of not having to make a decision on an ace high flop when you’re a half crazed tilt monkey.
** Interesting note, Sunar had just played three straight 14 hour days and been knocked out a crucial stage of a major tournament, I saw him get up from the table and he looked thoroughly drained, completely exhausted. Two minutes latter I saw him sit down at a Vic cash table!
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